When will the phosphate run out?

Suppose that we continue with our current usage and make a cautious estimate of the undiscovered reserves. Then we would still have enough for approximately 125 years, according to American research.  According to that same research there is still enough phosphate for 347 years if we also take account of the fact that we will have to be prepared to pay more for the extraction of phosphate in the future. These scenarios do not take account of the growing need for phosphate. Demand will rise due to an increase in the world population and the increasing consumption of meat. The cultivation of energy crops will also increase the consumption of phosphate. With a worldwide increase in demand of 2% per year the reserves that are immediately economically viable soon drop to 60 years, and the reserves that can probably be extracted drop to 100 years.

There are also sources that predict that problems will arise sooner. This because it is becoming increasingly difficult to extract the remaining reserves. At a certain point production will be unable to keep pace with demand. This will result in a major rise in the price of phosphate. Some researchers say that this will happen between 2030 and 2040, while others see these developments taking place even sooner. The current price developments are a cause for concern. The price of phosphate had been stable for decades. In 2008 and 2009, however, prices increased tenfold. The financial crisis has caused the price to go down, but it now seems to stabilise at a level that is three times higher than it has been in the past decades. Over the next couple of years, when the economy starts to grow again, it will become clear whether this peak was unique or a recurring phenomenon.